Monday, November 21, 2011

How the Dawgs Can Make the BCS Title Game

Yes, it sounds crazy. It sounds absurd. And no, it does not involve a Flux Capacitor wielding DeLorean (though that would help...(cough)...South Carolina game). This week, the debate over the most recent BCS Rankings will be easy fodder for the array of talking heads on every sports show. Personally, I like the discussion, but I only like it when people know what they are talking about (as in...not Matt Millen).

Anyway, back to the Dawgs. First, let's agree on a couple of things: We must beat Tech and The SEC West Champion to have any chance at the BCS Title game. Duh. Now...let's also agree any two loss team that does NOT play in a conference championship game will not finish in the rankings ahead of the Dawgs. I think this is safe when you consider we would have one more win AND will have beaten the Number 1 or 2 team on the final week.

So let's take a look at the rankings and see what we need each team to do between now and season's end:

  1. LSU (11-0) -- We actually need them to beat Arky this Friday. We can't have three one-loss teams out of the SEC West sitting there, because even if we beat one, there will be two with only one loss. We need Arky to have two losses.
  2. Alabama (10-1) -- Same reasoning as Arky. We need them to lose to Auburn, which would give them two losses. Not an easy thing to ask. 
  3. Arkansas (10-1) -- Already mentioned them. They need to lose in Baton Rouge. BTW, there is still an outside chance they could end up in the SEC Championship game...and possibly the NC game.
  4. Oklahoma State (10-1) -- Need them to lose to Oklahoma next weekend, giving them two losses. 
  5. Virginia Tech (10-1) -- I know. It doesn't make sense. They need to lose either at Virginia and/or to Clemson in the ACC Champ. game. 
  6. Stanford (10-1) -- Must lose to Notre Dame this weekend, giving them two losses.
  7. Boise State (10-1) -- Would be tough to put us ahead of them but the computers are about to slap them around as they end the season with Wyoming and New Mexico. I think we would jump them even with the heads up loss and one more loss overall. 
  8. Houston (11-0) -- Oh please...no way they go. I think they have a chance to lose to Tulsa this Friday and would also still have to play Southern Miss in the Conf. USA Title game. Who knew!?
  9. Oklahoma (8-2) -- Losing to Texas Tech and Baylor is worse than losing to Boise and South Carolina. Oh well. Hopefully someone will point this out in the near future. I think if we beat the number 1 team, that would be enough for us to surpass the Sooners. Plus, we would have one more overall win because the Big 12 does not have a championship game. 
  10. Oregon (9-2) -- This is a toughie. I think we would jump them because their last two games are against 3-8 Oregon State and possibly 6-6 UCLA in the Pac-12 Title game (yes, I know what you're thinking. I don't know either). Plus we would have a common opponent: LSU.
  11. Kansas State (9-2) -- They won't win their conference, will have one less win than us, and the voters hate them anyway.
  12. South Carolina (9-2) -- Despite the heads up loss, we would jump them because they only have one more game and we have two. Our possible win over the No. 1 team while S.C. doesn't play at all on Dec. 3 would give us the overall edge. 
  13. Georgia (9-2) -- win out...and hopefully convincingly over Tech.
No one below us has a realistic chance of jumping us. So here is how I could see the final rankings if all of the above results play out:
  1. LSU (12-1) -- They would still be No. 1...isn't that crazy?
  2. Georgia (11-2)
  3. Oregon (11-2)
  4. Arkansas (10-2)
  5. Boise St. (11-1)
  6. Houston (13-0)
  7. Alabama (10-2)
  8. Oklahoma (10-2)
  9. [insert every other two loss team below]
Let's put it this way: if you can guarantee that Boise or Houston won't move up to No. 2, we would have a very good argument. Yes, I realize I still have Arkansas ahead of Alabama even though Bama dominated them, but a loss to LSU and a loss to Auburn in their respective final games would have different punishments from the voters in my opinion. 

Obviously, a lot of crazy stuff has to happen, but I think it's technically possible. By the way, I'm vigorously knocking on wood because of the Tech game this weekend...I just don't know how we beat them...they're just too good. Okay, I'm done reverse-jinxing. 

5 comments:

  1. It's real simple.

    In 2007, all LSU had to do was win the SEC, even with 2 losses.

    Precedent has been set:
    can't play in the National Championship if you can't win your conference.

    Les Miles made the rules.

    ESPN took that position too.

    If UGA beats LSU, UGA deserves to go.

    a 2 loss SEC team that wins their conference, is the #1 or #2 team in the country.

    Period.

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  2. If LSU beats Arkansas, that will be the 7th ranked team they've beaten. If Georgia can beat LSU, Georgia can say we beat LSU, something the other 7 ranked teams couldn't do. if Georgia beats LSU, the swell for Georgia will be so loud, because SEC was so strong they held the top 3 spots at end of November. If Georgia wins the SEC, and ends up on the top of te pile, Georgia has earned a shot at the Natl Champ.

    Greg McGarity and Mark Richt should be out there building their case on ESPN.

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  3. If SEC is best conference, and UGA wins the conference, UGA plays in the big game.

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  4. Look at this:

    LSU is consensus #1, got all 60 votes. If Richt beats Miles, then you have to say Georgia is the best team in the nation.

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  5. Agree with this, but just a comment on, "Precedent has been set:
    can't play in the National Championship if you can't win your conference."

    Nebraska finished #2 in 2001, despite losing to Colorado in the last game of the regular season and missing out on the Big 12 title game altogether. So that precedent doesn't really apply. Also in the scenario with UGA reaching the title game it is all but assured that a 1-loss LSU would be the BCS title game opponent, throwing another kink in that supposed precedent.

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