Tuesday, September 6, 2011

An Objective Look at Richt 2006 to Present

As I slowly and dejectedly walked away from the Georgia Dome Saturday night, I realized that I shouldn’t be nearly as disappointed as I was. A 19th ranked team coming off a 6-7 season had just been beaten by the number 5 team in the country led by one of the best coaches in college football and a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in Kellen Moore.

Now I’m not gonna sit here and question the play calling or lack of in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball. I’ll leave the x’s and o’s of the game to the experts.

 As the Bulldog tinted glasses gradually began to slide off my head I had another epiphany. We haven’t beaten that many good teams in the last five seasons.

Should his seat be getting hot?
Since winning the SEC in 2005, Mark Richt has compiled a record of 44-21 (68% winning percentage) and a SEC record of 23-17 (58%). During this span UGA has failed to claim an SEC east crown and appear in the title game. Richt did however reach a BCS game in 2007 defeating Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl and finishing #2 in the final polls, but did UGA beat any quality teams?

For the sake of argument I will define a “good football team” as any team finishing the season with less than 4 losses, compiling a record of 10-3 or better. After reviewing the numbers I was shocked. Since the 2005 campaign, UGA has only beaten FOUR good football teams. In 2006, Georgia beat Auburn who finished 11-2 and Virginia Tech who ended the season 10-3. It is arguable that Virginia Tech beat no one that year in a weak ACC schedule, their best opponent was a Matt Ryan led BC. Tech lost that game 22-3.

In 2007, UGA’s Sugar Bowl season, the Bulldogs beat only one team who finished with less than 4 losses - Hawaii. It’s Hawaii folks, that was not a quality win. Lastly in 2009 Georgia beat Georgia Tech who finished the season at 11-3. At no point during the 2008 or 2010 season did UGA beat a quality opponent who finished better than 9-4.

Last season UGA went an abysmal 6-7, Richt’s first losing season in Athens. During that time the Bulldogs 6 wins came against teams who had a combined record of 24-50. That’s a 32% winning percentage. Those games should’ve been won. Not one win was against a quality team.

Now I want to look at Richt best team in that time span, and it's not the 2007 Sugar Bowl team. As I said earlier, that team beat only one with less than 4 losses, Hawaii. In 2008, UGA entered the season as the number 1 ranked team in the country and proceeded to limp to a 10-3 record finishing well outside the National Championship race. Without a doubt, the 2008 team was Richt's most talented. 13 starters from that team now play in the NFL, 5 of which are starters on their respective teams. Not many college teams outside of USC and Florida can boast such numbers. Coincidently both of those programs have won multiple titles this decade.

So are we a good football program or do we simply beat the teams we are supposed to and underachieve with the best talent in the country? I can only provide you with the objective numbers and leave you to draw your own conclusions.

6 comments:

  1. All very valid points, except you can't call it an objective look and then use words phrases like "good teams" and "quality wins."

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  2. I am confused on the numbers. You say that since the 2005 SEC champs team he is 34-21. That is 55 games. But 2006,2007,2008,2009 and 2010 should be at least 60 regular season games plus 4 bowl games. Is 34-21 correct? What am I missing?

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  3. Anon 7:33, Sorry I accidently punched 34 instead of 44. The numbers are corrected now. Thanks for reading. 60 Regular season games and 5 bowls.

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  4. Numbers do not lie. The trend is downhill and will continue, based upon what I saw on Saturday. For a second, I thought Willie was back in town. There is no point on commenting about Bobo. His ability or lack thereof speaks for itself.

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  5. This is a long term process.

    We want to see improvement.

    8 wins = 25% improvement over 6 wins

    9 wins = 50% improvement over 6 wins

    We'll worry about beating ranked teams next year, let's just get things headed in a right direction.

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  6. I feel like considering anyone with 10 wins as a "good team" might be a little ambitious. Teams winning 10+ games a year would be considered "great" in my book. Anyone winning 8+ would be considered "good."

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