Friday, September 30, 2011

Bet the Farm Friday (September 30)


(Note: Bet the Farm Friday or (BTFF) will run every Friday with the implied assumption that a) FH2H doesn't encourage gambling, b) we only encourage sports betting where legal, AND c) there are a lot of online sportsbooks available that are ambiguous on the legality so it should be okay...wait, did I say that out loud...nevermind....moving on....)

So we are back on the winning track after last week (2-1), which puts us one game OVER .500 for the season. Fortunately, we have some more winners picked out for this week. I mean, IF YOU HATE WINNING MONEY THEN PLEASE IGNORE THESE PICKS!!!!!!!!!! (Home team in CAPS)

1. Clemson at VIRGINIA TECH (-7)
On this week's edition of Hedge Talk, I claimed that VA Tech would win this game by double-digits. Thus, they must be a pick for this week. And here's the deal with Clemson: yes, they are undefeated and everyone wants to ride shotgun on the CU bandwagon. But guess what? I'm not falling for it. Let's look at Clemson's last three games: 
  1. A 35-30 home win over a Florida State team that was starting a 135-pound freshman backup QB.
  2. A 38-24 home win over a clearly struggling Auburn team
  3. A 35-27 squeaker over FCS Wofford
Meanwhile, in Virginia Tech's last game, they held Marshall to a measly 6 YARDS RUSHING! It will simply be too much to ask of Clemson to play well three tough games in a row, and VA Tech is TOUGH at home. Can you just picture it now: Night game in Blacksburg. Tajh Boyd's first road start ever. "Enter Sandman" screaming in the background...Dawgola's Pick: Virginia Tech (-7)

2. Northwestern (+8) at ILLINOIS
Here is an interesting stat: Pat Fitzgerald is 14-12 straight up in road games at Northwestern, and has covered 7 out of the last 9 as a road underdog. I do like Illinois's quarterback, Nathan Scheelhaase, but they have squeaked by their last two games by a total of 6 points combined (Arizona State and Western Michigan, both at home). Northwestern has a very solid quarterback in Dan Persa -- who is making his first start of the year coming off an achilles injury -- and NU is coming off a bye week. I expect the Wildcats to keep it close and wouldn't be surprised if they won this one outright. Dawgola's Pick: Northwestern (+8)

3. Ole Miss at FRESNO STATE (-3.5)
This could be the final straw for Mr. Houston Nutt. After watching last week's game in person, and seeing Ole Miss's body language in the second half, it doesn't look good for the Rebs this weekend. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if they went winless in conference play. Zack Stoudt is one of the worst quarterbacks I've seen in person (we should have won that game by 4 TDs), and Fresno always likes to compete against the major conference teams. Why Ole Miss scheduled a road game against Fresno is beyond me, and I think they will pay the price. Dawgola's Pick: Fresno (-3.5)

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