Tuesday, August 23, 2011

OUTSIDE OPINION: Stats Say Mark Richt Stinks

Dave Bartoo, who runs a blog called collegefootballmatrix.wordpress.com, has released an article detailing what coaches have "outperformed expectations" and what coaches have "underperformed" based on their recruiting class ranks from '07-'10. Basically, teams (coaches) get a +1 for an upset win during a given season, and a -1 for an upset loss. It should be noted an "upset" in this sense is what team has the more "inferior" recruiting class, and is not based on point spreads or rankings. It should also be noted that all coaches are included, even ones who have only coached for one season.

For instance, here is his listed of "underperforming coaches" in the last four years:


He decided to include Kiffin at USC even though he has only been there one season. A little flawed but you get the point. And as you may have noticed, Richt is also in the bottom 10. This means he has a -6 coaching effect in the past four years combined. In other words, we have BEEN upset more than we have upset other teams. Again, the whole "upset" thing is based on teams' recruiting rankings.

Now, let's look at what coaches have outperformed expectations the past four years based on recruiting:


Wow, Jim Grobe "numero uno". Obviously, teams like Alabama aren't on either list because they (a) rarely even have to opportunity to "upset" anyone", and (b) they rarely lose period. These "overperforming" teams have lesser recruiting classes, but tend to "upset" other teams more than get upset themselves. It does NOT mean that this is an ideal way to operate -- most teams should prefer to simply have better players and beat up on everyone. But it could show who is an actual "good coach". 

Richt had a great recruiting class in 2011. Let's hope it doesn't go to waste. 

9 comments:

  1. Well, this should get the day started off with a bang.

    Dawgola, even though this is someone else's objective measure and bears no reference to what your opinion is, you need to just stop posting junk to get hits. You're probably a big Gator fan in Dawg clothing, aren't you?

    Good stuff, DT.

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  2. Seriously Martin! Don't take your frustration out on Dawgola. Your really just mad that Mark Richt has continuously under performed. It's not that he's a bad coach he just won't hire any real cordinators or assistants. Plus the fact that once he made a mistake in his surronding coaches he won't fire them. But hey what ever helps you sleep at night. GO DAWGS!

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  3. This should sut up the kool aid drinkers forever.

    Talent? Check
    Coaching? Nope.

    Let's look at the positive side, at least Richt finished in the top 10 somewhere.

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  4. Great!

    That'll start a "Bring Paul Johnson to Athens" campaign.

    Thank you very much! NOT!

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  5. Mark Richt rarely exceeds expectations on AP pre season rankings either. In fact, over last 5 years, Richt's the #4 most OVER-RATED Coacg in te whole nation! Another top 10 finish by Mark Richt!

    http://www.pollspeak.com/data/over-underrated-2010-AP-5-Year-OtoU.htm

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  6. Richt finished #1 in te country over last 5 years!

    That's right! Richt was the ONLY coach in the entire NATION to UNDERPEFORM his AP Pre season poll projections 4 OUT OF LAST 5 YEARS.

    http://www.pollspeak.com/data/over-underrated-2010-AP-5-Year-OtoU.htm

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  7. Dude! Not cool! Trying to steal some hits from Jorts and Hominy?

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  8. Grobe also made $2.9 million coaching an irrelevant team in the ACC last year. Everything should be taken into perspective.

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  9. Richt was solid early at UGA, then it all went downhill. Why?

    1- Richt ran the offense- excellent scoring margin, Richt kept a cushion, regardless of how bad defense was
    2- Van Gorder, Atlanta Falcon's DC, ran the defense. Held teams to low scoring, was stout agains tthe run and in the red zone.
    3- Saban, Miles, Petrino, Meyer, Spurrier wern't around the SEC yet. Competition has severely gone up. and Richt's staff has gotten weaker and weaker.

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