Monday, July 25, 2011

Vegas Odds: Hilton Releases Over/Under Win Totals

The annual "Over/Under Wins Totals" for many D-1 football teams were released by the Las Vegas Hilton yesterday. In case you are unfamiliar with the bet, each team is assigned a wins total and the better chooses whether that given team will go "under" or "over" their respective number. For instance, the Dawgs are pegged at 8.5 so if you bet "over" and we win 9 or more regular season games, you're a winner.

Here is the entire list. Note that not all the teams were listed for various reasons (Ohio State and Oregon have "uncertainties" due to their off-the-field issues); Also, if a team has a -120o after their name for instance, that just means you have to bet $120 to win $100, as opposed to the normal $110 to win $100:

Alabama 10 -120(o)
Oklahoma 10
Boise St. 10.5 –120(o)
LSU 9.5 -160u
Stanford 9 -150u
S. Carolina 9 -150u
Arkansas 8.5
Texas A&M 8.5 -120u
Georgia 8.5 -160(o)
Oklahoma State 8.5
Nebraska 9.5 -140(o)
Florida State 9.5 -130(o)
Virginia Tech 10
Wisconsin 9.5 -120(o)
Arizona St. 8 -120(o)
West Virginia 9.5 -140u
Florida 7.5 -130u
USC 7.5 -130(o)
Notre Dame 8.5 -130(o)
Texas 8
Miss State 7.5 -130u
Miami 8 -120u
Oregon St. 6.5 -130u
TCU 9 -130u
BYU 8.5 -150(o)
Missouri 7.5 -120(o)
Michigan State 7.5 -120(o)
Auburn 6 -155(o)
Tennessee 6.5 -120(o)
Penn St 7.5 -155(o)
North Carolina 8 -130(o)
Michigan 7 -130(o)
Utah 7.5 -120u
Nevada 8 -125u
UNLV 2.5 -130(o)

Keep in mind many of these teams' numbers are reflective of a tough or easy schedule. For instance, Georgia and Arkansas are both 8.5 even though most experts say Arky will have a better team (I still think it's pretty interesting that Florida is only at 7.5 despite having a down year last season).

It's possible that more teams will be added as we approach the season. Many more sportsbooks will start to add these as well which could include more teams (like Tech).

3 comments:

  1. In effect they are saying the odds are that UGA will win 9+ games this year since you have to put up so much to win $100.

    Why didn't they just go with 9.0/120?

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  2. If it was 9 then we would have to win 10 games for you to lose if you bet the under...an even 9 would be a push. I don't think even an optimistic fan would bet on us to win 10 games.

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  3. I don't see us having any issue with winning 9 regular season games of the 12, given that we play in fact, according to Rivals Rankings this morning :

    # 121 Coastal Carolina
    # 54 Ole Miss
    # 31 Missy State
    # 49 vols
    # 100 Vandie
    # 30 Auburn
    # 120 New Mexico State
    # 63 Kentucky
    # 65 Georgia tek

    Top 25 Boise State
    Top 25 South Carolina
    Top 25 Florida

    Georgia is ranked # 27 according to Rivals this morning.

    We should then win the 9 games against teams who are not as highly ranked as we are. Right ?

    In fact, I have read blog after blog post after post saying that we beat Boise State, South Carolina and Florida. Rivals hasn't got to yet posting how high those teams will be ranked for 2011, but they frankly none of the 3 will be very highly ranked. Right ?

    # 70 is the average rank of the 9 opponents we do know the Rivals rankings of this morning. That certainly gives us some indication that we are considered better than an average opponent of # 70 for nine of our games.

    What is acceptable to you playing 9 games of 12 regular season games against cupcakes ?

    Our schedule 2011 is almost as easy as Boise State's, which is 11 of their 12 regular season games are against the average Rivals rankings of # 81 this morning.

    It really boils down to Missy State and Auburn. If as we as a fan base have posted daily all off-season, Auburn is no good and Missy State certainly doesn't have our players either, then we should be able to play 1 of the truly great teams nationally in The SEC West in Atlanta early December.

    9 wins is a gimme. You don't even have to beat Boise State, Florida or South Carolina. This is what is wrong with our Expectations any more around here of this # 11 football program all-time in 1-A Wins.

    We try to talk about wins in the abstract instead of breaking it down, just whom it is we play every week - including 9 games against teams averaging in the Rivals Rankings this morning, # 70.

    9 games against average # 70 team

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