Monday, May 16, 2011

Richt Report Part One: Record Review

For the record, I'm not convinced that Mark Richt is in over his head. I'm also not convinced that we're on the right track.


There may be some leaning, but I'm the only one privy to that information.


But I digress...


Dawgola and I have taken some recent heat (and some acumen) lately for a few posts about Mark Richt. For the record, I'm not on any bandwagons- I like to take off my rose-colored glasses and try to look at the situation as objectively as I can. Those of you who read last week's article from Dawgola (can't link because of Blogger tech issues) on the recent troubles around our program and their possible meaning for CMR, might think otherwise, but I beg of you a temporary period of objective reading with this series of posts.


Speaking of that, this week should be chock full of excitement on H2H. I'll be offering some controversial subject matter (on our head coach), but will try and qualify all of it with some very lucid insight and facts. Just read the following with an open mind. I'll offer both sides of the "Keep/Fire" argument, so keep that in mind.


Today's post will be a review of CMR's record for the past five seasons. I'll present the games and file them to one of five categories (denoted by color highlighted):


  • WW - Won a game that should have been won
  • LW - Lost a game that should have been won
  • LL - Lost a game that should have been lost
  • WL - Won a game that should have been lost
  • DW - A game that could really have gone either way.
It's a pretty simple, but effective measure of sorting out how you've really performed over the last five years and gets out the outliers in a given time period. This way you can weigh those good wins against the bad losses and, sort of, zero them out.


Here goes...


2006
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers - Won 48-12
at South Carolina Gamecocks - Won 18-0
UAB Blazers - Won 34-0
Colorado Buffaloes - Won 14-13
at Ole Miss Rebels - Won 14-9
Tennessee Volunteers - Lost 51-33
Vanderbilt Commodores - Lost 24-22
Mississippi State Bulldogs - Won 27-24
Florida Gators - Lost 21-14
at Kentucky Wildcats - Lost 24-20
at Auburn Tigers - Won 37-15
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Won 15-12
Virginia Tech Hokies - Won 31-24


Final Tally:
WW: 7
LW: 3
LL: 1
WL: 1
DW: 1


Thoughts
You could really call that Tennessee game a wash in terms of talent, but you should never let UTk score 50 at your place, so it's in the red regardless. We completely bum-rushed the WTP's in Auburn in what should have been a draw, so that's a win with the Dawgs getting points over there.

2007
Oklahoma State Cowboys - Won 35-14
South Carolina Gamecocks - Lost 16-12
Western Carolina Catamounts - Won 45-16
at Alabama Crimson Tide - Won 26-23
Ole Miss Rebels - Won 45-17
at Tennessee Volunteers - Lost 35-14
at Vanderbilt Commodores - Won 20-17
Florida Gators (Jacksonville, FL) - Won 42-30
Troy Trojans - Won 44-34
Auburn Tigers - Won 45-20
Kentucky Wildcats - Won 24-13
at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Won 31-17
Hawaii Warriors - Won 41-10


Final Tally:
WW: 10
LW: 2
LL: 0
WL: 0
DW: 1

Thoughts
Should never have lost to the Cocks that year with about 10000x as much talent. While the UTk loss may have been a tough one to get anyway, we were completely obliterated in that game. Much more than the 49-10 beat down in Jacksonville we'd receive the next season. That was, by far, the worst loss I've ever experienced. This team should've won the National Championship.

2008
Georgia Southern Eagles - Won 45-21
Central Michigan Chippewas - Won 56-17
at South Carolina Gamecocks - Won 14-7
at Arizona State Sun Devils - Won 27-10
Alabama Crimson Tide - Lost 41-30
Tennessee Volunteers - Won 26-14
Vanderbilt Commodores - Won 24-14
at LSU Tigers - Won 52-38
Florida Gators (Jacksonville, FL) - Lost 49-10
at Kentucky Wildcats - Won 42-38
at Auburn Tigers - Won 17-13
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets - Lost 45-42
Michigan State - Won 24-12


Final Tally:
WW: 9
LW: 2
LL: 1
WL: 0
DW: 1

Thoughts
Vastly underachieved with so much talent. This year is so depressing I can't really even talk about it.

2009 
at Oklahoma State - Lost 24-10
South Carolina - Won 41-37
at Arkansas - Won 52-41
Arizona State - Won 20-17
LSU - Lost 20-13
at Tennessee - Lost 45-19
at Vanderbilt - Won 34-10
Florida - Lost 41-17
Tennessee Tech - Won 38-0
Auburn - Won 31-24
Kentucky - Lost 34-27
at Georgia Tech - Won 30-24
Texas A&M - Won 44-20


Final Tally:
WW: 4
LW: 3
LL: 1
WL: 1
DW: 4

Thoughts
I won't make any excuses about 2009. We were down on talent, relatively speaking, but really ended up with a record indicative of the talent on the team. Objectively, this team actually may have overachieved a little (offensively). 

2010
Louisiana-Lafayette - Won 55-7
at South Carolina - Lost 17-6
Arkansas - Lost 31-24
at Mississippi State - Lost 24-12
at Colorado - Lost 29-27
Tennessee - Won 41-14
Vanderbilt - Won 43-0
at Kentucky - Won 44-31
Florida - Lost 34-31
Idaho State - Won 55-7
at Auburn - Lost 49-31
Georgia Tech - Won 42-34
UCF - Lost 10-6



Final Tally:
WW: 6
LW: 4
LL: 2
WL: 0
DW: 1

Thoughts
The schedule ended up pretty easy, yet we were still 6-7. Based purely on talent at skill positions, we should have, at the very worst, ended our season with a 9-4 record. I say this only because we would've been playing a better opponent in the bowl.

Overall the totals:
WW: 36
LW: 14
LL: 5
WL: 2
DW: 8

Overall Thoughts
Based on the above data, I think a realistic person could expect a somewhere around 48 - 50 wins out of those 65. Given Mark Richt's overall winning percentage of .739, that should equate to approximately 48 wins, which is right along with my prediction solely based on the aforementioned record review. 

The Dawgs have won 44 over that time period. Had last year not been disappointing, that 9 win season would sure make the win total look a little more in line with what's normal.

So was last year just an aberration, or is there a trend developing? I guess that's why Greg McGarity didn't pull the trigger last year. So now that the wins and losses are out of it, what about the intangible factors, both good and bad...

Your thoughts?


And thanks to the random commenter below for the poll suggestion. This was the best I could do given the coding issues.

Stay tuned for the next installment this week, Richt Report Part Two: The Good.

5 comments:

  1. S. FL Chapter of the Bulldog NationMay 16, 2011 at 8:41 AM

    Pretty simple and straight forward...

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thats a great way to evaluate a season. I disagree on some colors, but I'd love to see this turned into a poll. Like a little poll next to each game then a 1 to 10 overall underachieve/overachieve scale at the end of each season.

    Also, I'd like to see how people feel about next season; each game, should we win should we lose, is it a push.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Last Five (5) Years :

    44-21 Georgia Mark Richt last entire 5 years # 23 won/lost # 23

    I do not believe that there is anyone who thinks that Georgia, # 11 All-Time in 1-A Won / Lost, should have been instead # 23 in Won / Lost over your last 5 years you discuss here.

    You break out 14 games we Lost, you say we should have Won.

    You break out only 2 games we Won, you say we should have Lost.

    2-14 is about what Mark Richt is All-Time in Games played against teams finishing that season in the Top 10 AP Poll at 3-10 3 Wins vs teams finishing in the Top 10 AP Poll and 10 Losses vs teams finishing in the Top 10 AP Poll.

    The 3 Wins ?

    2001 vs # 4 vols, but Lost 4 games 2001.

    2005 vs # 6 LSU, but Lost 3 games 2005.

    2006 vs # 9 Auburn, but Lost 4 games 2006.

    There is not 1 single season when Mark Richt and his "coaching staff" finished in the Top 10 AP Poll and beat a single team finishing in the Top 10 AP Poll in a big huge bowl game on the National Stage with everyone watching us.

    Why mince words, sir ?

    We have grossly underachieved, especially given the fact that we hand this coaching staff of Mark Richt the # 4 most high school recruits who go on to the NFL from the state of Georgia.

    I believe you have to state a point.

    There has been a deluge of bad news, on the field and off the field, these last Five (5) Years.

    You say we have Lost 14 Games we should have won, and Lost 5 games we should have Lost. That is 19 Losses.

    We have 21 Losses, an average in excess of 4 games a season the last Five (5) Years.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Anonymous 9:42 p.m.,

    Sir, 2011 is not going to be any different.

    We have averaged the # 7 recruiting class all 11 of Mark Richt's recruiting classes, when you average both Rivals and Scout.com ranking over these 11 years.

    We are not beating the teams who finish in the Top 10 AP Poll. We lose to them, 10 out of the 13 games in the Mark Richt Era.

    Winning Percentage Finish ranking each of Mark Richt’s 10-Years :

    # 67 at 06-7 for 2010
    # 35 at 08-5 for 2009
    # 18 at 10-3 for 2008
    # 09 at 11-2 for 2007
    # 33 at 09-4 for 2006
    # 12 at 10-3 for 2005
    # 11 at 10-2 for 2004
    # 12 at 11-3 for 2003
    # 02 at 13-1 for 2002
    # 34 at 08-4 for 2001

    Over the LAST FIVE (5) YEARS :

    # 34 is Mark Richt’s Average Ranking in Winning Percentage last 5 years

    Over the FIRST FIVE (5) YEARS (Jim Donnan Recruits) :

    # 14 is Mark Richt’s Average Ranking in Winning Percentage first 5 years


    There are 20 places worse these last Five (5) Years in Average Winning Percentage Rank per Season than there were with the Jim Donnan recruits.

    Boise State – WIN
    South Carolina – LOSS
    Coastal Carolina – WIN
    @ Ole Miss – WIN
    Miss State – LOSS
    @ vols – WIN
    @ Vandie – WIN
    Florida – LOSS
    New Mexico – WIN
    Auburn – LOSS
    Kentucky – WIN
    @ Georgia tek – WIN
    SEC Championship Game – watch on TV - DNP
    Crappy bowl game - WIN

    14-game season, we will not play SEC Champ Game
    13-game season, remaining
    LOSSES – 4 – South Carolina Miss State Florida Auburn
    WINS – 9 – Boise St CoastCar Ole Miss vols Vandie N Mex KY Ga tek bowl
    9 – 4 in a 14-game season for the better teams
    Good for # 32 in the nation in won/loss is what 9-4 is
    Obviously, about # 7 in The SEC at 4-4 and 1 DID NOT PLAY SEC Champ
    6 Consecutive Years in Row in succession not even play SEC Champ game

    What is worse, if the Trend Continues detailed on this Blog Post by Hedges to Hardwood of 14 Losses to Teams we should have obviously have beaten these Last Five (5) Years - while we will be expected to beat Auburn, what if we Lose instead to these teams such as Colorado we Lost to last season ?

    It is a failed offense we run.

    It is a failed special teams we run.

    I believe it is the defense that is and has been woefully inadequate in talent, compared to what we UGA Bulldogs' Fans expect looking at our defenses over these 119 years.

    I do not believe we know how to evaluate talent, nor consistently hand out punishment. And, we damn sure do not know how to run an offense.

    And, then there are those who say that there is no point. That there are just only EXCUSES. We are going to be great this 2011 season at 9-4. As you can see, 9-4 is no different that what we have been over these last Five (5) Seasons, and unacceptable. But, 9-4 is great, the Mark Richt apologists state for 2011. Drink the Kool-Aid.

    ReplyDelete
  5. go away BuLLdawg, everyone knows it's you even when you've found a new blog to post on anonymously. You have no originality and use the same stats over and over and over again. Anyone can twist stats anyway they want to prove any point they are trying to make. You never have and never will have any effect whatsoever on the football team that the rest of us love.

    Instead of constantly ripping on the team you CLAIM to love, how about some suggestions on what you think they should do. And no, I'm not talking about "fire Richt" or "start Hudson Mason/Christian Lemay", I want to see you form actual ideas for the future. Until then, STFU.

    ReplyDelete