Tuesday, March 29, 2011

Trey Thompkins/Travis Leslie Update

As we continue to wait for the two UGA juniors to make their decision, I decided to go through and look at as many mock drafts as possible to get a read on their draft projection. There are many factors that should go into their decisions (not that I'm an expert nor giving advice) but obviously the mock drafts provide some weight. I tried to find the ones that were updated most recently, but there are about forty different ones I found online (some of them had not been updated in months), so I was very picky.

First, let's start with Trey Thompkins:
  • ESPN's Chad Ford: 32nd overall player -- It should be noted that Ford's is not a "mock draft" but more of a "player ranking", similar to Kiper's football "Big Board".
  • NBADraft.net: 21st overall to Portland
  • MyNBADraft.net: 34th overall to Detroit (2nd round pick)
  • DraftExpress.com: 30th overall to San Antonio
  • MockDraftOnline.com: 17th overall to New York
Here are Travis Leslie's Projections:
  • ESPN's Chad Ford: 39th overall player
  • NBADraft.net: undrafted
  • MyNBADraft.net: 35th overall to Sacramento
  • DraftExpress.com: 25th overall to Miami
  • MockDraftOnline.com: not drafted in first round (didn't give second round projections)
As you can see, neither guy is a "lottery pick" type. Thompkins's "game" seems to be easier to evaluate because his "range" of projections seems to settle from about 20-30 overall, whereas Leslie seems to be all over the place (not consistent among scouts). The polarizing scouting report could be a good thing (or bad thing) regarding Leslie. But...all it takes is for one team to really like a guy. The problem is, just because someone "likes" you, does not mean they will draft you. I'm not trying to persuade Travis to stay (and I know Mark Fox knows WAY more about this than I do) but if I'm projected to be a second rounder by most (or not drafted at all), I would have to stay. These second round guys are almost locks for the Developmental League this day and age, and given Leslie's fundamental flaws, I fear he could get buried there.

Again, I'm trying to be objective here. If Thompkins is a Top-20 pick, then I see no real reason to stay unless he becomes a Top-10 pick next year (or he could get hurt again). Leslie on the other hand just feels like a guy who should stick around another year...just my honest opinion.

4 comments:

  1. I don't hold much hope with Trey since he's going to be a first round pick and chances are that he won't improve on those projections much by staying another year. I don't think we saw anywhere near the best of Trey this season due to injuries, but who is to say it he wouldn't get hurt again next season(maybe even more severely). Sadly, it appears they both actually hurt their stock by staying around for their Junior seasons.

    As for Travis, he's got a lot to work on in terms of his ballhandling, perimeter shooting and perimeter defense. Another year could hurt his projections even more if those parts of his game don't improve significantly. There's also the matter of Caldwell-Pope coming in and Robinson and Ware returning for their Senior seasons. With our strength being on the perimeter, how much opportunity would Travis have to hone the skills that NBA scouts are looking for on actual game situations.

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  2. Leslie improved a lot from last year to this year, so there is no reason to think he won't continue to improve if he stays. KCP's minutes will cut into Leslie's a bit, but he will also rotate with Ware and Robinson. Travis will still play 30+ a game imo. Again, a second round projection means nothing in terms of being on an NBA roster.

    As for Trey, like I said in the article, IF he is a lock for the first round, I can't blame him for leaving.

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  3. airleslie.webs.comMarch 29, 2011 at 2:44 PM

    Hey I have a website about Georiga basketball: airleslie.webs.com
    I talk about UGA hoops and I actually just posted an exclusive interview I got with Chris Barnes. Can you put that in the links you like and I will do the same on my site. Thank you

    ReplyDelete
  4. Air Leslie,

    Yep, already done. Website looks good btw.

    ReplyDelete