Monday, February 7, 2011

Monday Hoops Thoughts

After an extremely frustrating but ultimately successful performance Saturday, the Dawgs now find themselves in prime position to make a tourney run. With only eight games left, let's examine what the Dawgs need to do to impress the selection committee:

First, let's look at UGA's tournament resume thus far:

RPI: 38
SOS: 48
Very Good wins (vs. RPI top 25): 1 (Kentucky)
Other good wins (vs. RPI 26-100): 3
Bad losses: 0
Very Bad losses: 0

The good news is that we haven't lost to anyone crappy yet (teams outside of RPI top 100). Of our remaining games, only South Carolina (104) and LSU (214) are outside the RPI top 100 (keep in mind we play S.C. twice). So, those three games are key. Also, strangely enough, Alabama only has an RPI ranked #96 despite the fact that they are 7-1 in SEC play. It is possible that they fall outside the top 100 by the time we play them (though I can't see a loss against them hurting as much as it appears on paper).

Alabama brings up an interesting case in the SEC; they have a RPI of #96, have two very good wins (UK and Tenn), but have four bad losses. One could argue that they could be left out after having a VERY good conference record (11-5 or possibly 12-4) -- because 12-4 in the West doesn't mean as much as it would in the East. Which brings me to the Dawgs....

Is it possible for the Dawgs to be 8-8 in SEC play and still get in? I say yes, but barely. It depends on (a) who we beat, (b) who we lose to, and (c) how we do in the SEC tournament.

If we are to get in, here are the things that can't happen if we finish 8-8: (a) lose to LSU or South Carolina at home (b) lose to Xavier, and (c) lose in the first round of the SEC Tourney.

Here are the things that must happen if we finish 8-8 and still get in: (a) beat Xavier, (b) only lose to Florida, Tennessee, Vandy, and Alabama), and (c) get one win in the SEC tourney. I THINK we would get in but it would be close. That would probably give us zero bad losses (assuming Bama remains in the top 100) and about five good wins (Kentucky, Xavier, UAB, Colorado, and Ole Miss).

We would certainly be sweating it out on Selection Sunday finishing 8-8, which makes the Xavier game tomorrow that much larger. And, you know...it would be a lot easier if we beat the rest of the teams too.

2 comments:

  1. Martin Van Dawg

    After our discussion of Steven Seagal the other night (saturday in while watching UFC). I discovered there was supposed to be a video game made after him and thought you might enjoy seeing what could have been, just follow the link and look at #4 on the list.

    http://www.cracked.com/blog/6-real-video-games-that-were-too-insane-to-release/

    ReplyDelete
  2. Wow. Thank you for pointing this out BW. It's been the highlight of my day thus far, easily topping Greg Jennings', "It's great being great," quote from last night.

    Props to you for uncovering that web gem.

    ReplyDelete