Tuesday, November 16, 2010

Breaking Down the BCS Scenarios

With only a couple of weeks left in the season (3 if you count conference championship games), the BCS picture has become much clearer. The way I see it, there are only four teams that have a legitimate shot at the title:
  1. Oregon -- This one's easy...if Oregon wins out, they're in. If they stumble against Arizona or Oregon State, then Rose Bowl here we come. They can't get in the title game with one loss in my opinion...more on why later.
  2. Auburn -- Auburn's situation is a little bit trickier...obviously, if they win out they're in, but if they lose next week against Alabama, I think it's still a possibility for them to get in if they beat the Cocks in the SECCG. It would depend on the votors/computers.
  3. TCU -- TCU needs some help, but one thing is for sure -- they're going undefeated. Their only remaining game is New Mexico which is one of the worse FBS teams in the country. If Oregon loses and Boise stays behind TCU in the rankings, then the Horned Frogs should get in. If Auburn loses to Alabama but wins the SECCG, then controversy will ensue -- should a 1-loss SEC team get in over undefeated TCU....we'll have to hear that debate for a month. However, playing this crap New Mexico team could piss off the computers, which could bring us another team...
  4. Boise -- Don't count out the possibility of Boise jumping TCU in the rankings. Why? Because Boise plays 1-loss Nevada in a couple of weeks which should boost their SOS rating, AND they play their final game a week AFTER TCU plays their final game against New Mexico. I think voters would let Boise jump TCU simply because they played a game during the final week and TCU doesn't. But otherwise their situation is just like TCU...they need Oregon or Auburn to stumble.
**Why can't LSU get in? A: See 2007 Georgia.
**Why can't a 1-loss Big Ten team get in? A: Because they stupidly end their season too early and voters forget about them because they don't play a conference championship game. This is also the reason Oregon can't lose a game and still get in.

**Why can't a 1-loss Nebraksa team get in, they play a conference championship game? A: They're currently 8th in the BCS. That's too far to go to get to the top.

**Can ANY one loss team get in the title game? A: In my opinion, Auburn could lose to Bama, drop in the rankings, and win the SECC game to sneak back in. It's not a guarantee and you would have Auburn jump two undefeated teams (Boise and TCU).
Would the voters do this? Yep.
If this happens, how many times would analysts talk about a play-off. A: 18,546 times.

**Could TCU play Boise in the title game? A: Yep, if Oregon and Auburn both lose....and I would subsequently gouge my eyes out.

**What is your prediction Dawgola? A: First of all, I think Oregon is going undefeated. After that, I think it depends on the Auburn/Alabama game. If Alabama kills Auburn, and Auburn drops about 7 spots in the rankings, then I think Boise will sneak in. If Auburn loses close to Bama and beats South Carolina, I think Auburn would get back in. Given the fact that Auburn has two tough games left...my bold prediction is Boise St. vs. Oregon for the BCS Title....excuse me, I have to go vomit now...

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