Monday, October 18, 2010

UPDATE: Can the Dawgs Win the East?

Last week, I presented this "crazy" scenario in which Georgia could somehow miraculously win the SEC East. Now, after just one more week of play, Dawg fans are starting to believe it is possible. Again, not probable, but possible. Actually, let me use this time to reverse-jinx our team:

"We have NO shot at winning the East....none...that's it. Literally impossible."

There...that should hold us through this week. Anyway, let's first break down what occurred this weekend regarding the East:
So, here are the new conference standings:

Yep, the Dawgs are tied for 2nd in the East. Of course the main problem is the fact that we do NOT hold the heads-up tiebreaker with South Carolina. But, assuming Vandy, Kentucky, and Tennessee are out of contention, here are the remaining conference games for each team:
  • UGA -- at Kentucky, Florida, at Auburn....not that easy.
  • Florida -- Georgia (two weeks to prepare), at Vandy, South Carolina
  • USCe -- at Vandy, Tennessee, Arkansas, at Florida
From the Dawgs' perspective, let's go through the possible scenarios:
  1. Lose all three...obviously, we'd be effed.
  2. Lose two out of three....again, effed.
  3. Lose to ONLY Kentucky -- if S.C. lost to UF, we still MIGHT have a chance at a tiebreaker, but since the three-way tie break (assuming UF and SC finish 4-4) is "best record in your division" I think UF would get the nod in this scenario since they would only have 1 eastern loss (to UGA).
  4. Lose to ONLY Florida -- We would be effed because both SC and UF would have both beaten us so we would definitely be out on a three-way tie.
  5. Lose to ONLY Auburn -- and boy, based on their performance this past weekend, losing to Auburn is a VERY LARGE possibility. However, this would give UGA the nod if: A) S.C. lost to UF and one other conference game, and UF only lost to the Dawgs (because that would give S.C. two eastern losses, thus the three-way tie-break would revert to us and UF heads-up, and we would have beaten UF....confused yet) or B) any scenario where S.C. finishes 3-5).
  6. WIN OUT -- We would need S.C. to lose two more conference games, so they would finish 4-4.
The most attainable scenario in my opinion, is option 5.A. above. I just think beating Auburn this year on the road is going to be very difficult, especially since we play them right after UF.

If we were able to somehow conquer to east, it would be the most compelling SEC East race probably ever....but if we lose to Kentucky Saturday, figuring all of this out was REALLY a waste of time.

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