Thursday, September 23, 2010

Photobucket

(Note: Bet the Farm Friday or (BTFF) will run every Friday with the implied assumption that a) FH2H doesn't encourage gambling, b) we only encourage sports betting where legal, AND c) there are a lot of online sportsbooks available that are ambiguous on the legality so it should be okay...wait, did I say that out loud...nevermind....moving on....)

Okay. Okay. I went 1-2 last week. That means I'm an even 5-5 on the year. Simply not good enough. Because I've had back-to-back losing weeks, we need to examine what is causing the problem: Is it because I know nothing about the teams? No. Is it because I just pick random games and don't really care? No. Am I just that unlucky? Possibly, but that Boise game last week was lost not because of luck, but because the Broncos inserted their big bronco hoof into Wyoming's.....well let's not get too graphic. No, I am losing for one simple reason: I've managed to piss off the gambling gods. NOT a smart thing to do. Basically, it's like being in a doghouse within another doghouse -- not easy to get out. When did this happen? I'm not sure but....well...here is an excerpt from my post in last week's BTFF:

"Love these picks this week. I mean, I REALLY LOVE THESE PICKS. Last week, I went a disappointing 1-2 BUT I'm still 4-3 on the year so we're in the green. This week it's all about the home underdogs. Normally, I think this logic is somewhat overrated but I have some good angles on these games. In other words "IF YOU HATE WINNING MONEY THEN NAVIGATE TO ANOTHER WEBSITE!!!!"

So yeah...a little to cocky I was. This time, I'm giving FULL respect to the gambling gods so that excuse is out the door. First though, we need to examine all the ways NOT to treat the gambling gods when it comes to sports betting:
  1. Start making fun of the lines Vegas sets by saying stuff like, "This is the stupidest line I've ever seen. WTF were they thinking?" And, "This is just ridiculous....plain and simple...I'm almost mad at how off this spread is. FREE MONEY!!"
  2. Start celebrating a potential winning bet at halftime of a game. I think we all know this will end badly.
  3. Start wagering on random games without doing any research...they don't like that and it can lead to a serious tailspin of a losing streak.
  4. Try to double down to make up for a losing bet earlier in the day. They are trying to teach us a lesson in responsible money management, so if we're excessive...they get excessive with our ass.
  5. Write an article about how and how not to irritate the gambling gods...uh...nevermind this one..moving on...
Now that we know what NOT to say, let's get to some picks. And I'm going to stick with the conference I know best, the SEC (Home team in CAPS):

1. Georgia (pk) at MISSISSIPPI STATE -- I don't really know if I'm going to win this bet, but here are the two possible outcomes:
  1. Georgia wins, I win, and all is good for now.
  2. Georgia loses, I lose, and Mark Richt is sentenced to the guillotine.
So even if Georgia and I lose, there is at least some drama. It's a win-win. We have a talent advantage at every single position. No way we should lose but...who knows. Dawgola's Play: Georgia (pk)

2. Fresno State (+2) at OLE MISS -- I'm going with KISS (Keep it simple stupid). Ole Miss can't beat anyone, Fresno is 2-0 with wins over Cincinnati and Utah State. Sadly, I think Ole Miss would lose these games. Until The Rebs prove they can beat ANYONE, I'll take two with the experienced Fresno team. Dawgola'a play: Fresno St. (+2)

3. AUBURN (-3) vs. South Carolina -- The cat's out of the bag on Lattimore, so Auburn will be ready. This means that Garcia will have to make plays...and if I know him like I think I do, he is due for a complete stinkbomb. Auburn should take this one by a touchdown at home. Dawgola's Play: Auburn (-3)

See, I didn't over-analyze the games, I didn't guarantee anything, and quite frankly I don't think I'm winning any of these...you hear that gambling gods....you're better than me.....I suck. I probably won't win another pick all year. (I'm trying desperately to use reverse psychology on them...let's hope it works)


No comments:

Post a Comment