Friday, September 10, 2010

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(Note: Bet the Farm Friday or (BTFF) will run every Friday with the implied assumption that a) FH2H doesn't encourage gambling, b) we only encourage sports betting where legal, AND c) there are a lot of online sportsbooks available that are ambiguous on the legality so it should be okay...wait, did I say that out loud...nevermind....moving on....)

Today's Topic: Saturday's Lines


Well, I, Dawgola Tesla, am 3-1 on my picks for this year (Van Dawgin 0-1), so we're off to a good start. Let's find some more winners! (HOME TEAM IN CAPS):

OHIO ST. (-8.5) vs. Miami (FL) -- Miami seems to be the hot pick this week, but I am very bearish on the Hurricanes. Why? The three most talented defenses Miami faced last year (VA Tech, Clemson, and Wisconsin) all ended up defeating them. And Ohio State is not the OSU of four years ago. This team actually has legitimate speed of both sides of the ball. We all know about Pryor, but they also have a very talented and experienced Offensive Line (four starters back), a big-time running back (Brandon Saine), and a big-time pass rusher (Cam Heyward). And if you're worried about the Buckeyes defense, look at what they did to the high-octane offense of Oregon in the Rose Bowl last year. Miami also has a talented Offensive Line, but they are somewhat inexperienced, losing three starters from last year. I think tOSU will get serious pressure on Harris, who likes to stay in the pocket. I like the Canes' talent on defense, but they did struggle in games last year (gave up 40 to Clemson, 33 to UNC, and 34 to Florida State). And did I mention they are playing in the Horseshoe? I think Ohio State takes this one by double digits. Dawgola's play: Ohio State -8.5

CENTRAL FLORIDA (-3) vs. N.C. State -- This game may not be the sexiest on the board, but it caught my eye. UCF has been very competitive against highly ranked teams at home, losing to #6 Texas 35-32 in '07, and beating #13 Houston last year 37-32. They return 15 starters from an 8-5 team, including 4 Offensive Linemen, and their leading rusher in RB Brynn Harvey. They also return 7 starters defense, and led Conference USA in scoring defense last season (18.1 ppg). NC State finished last season 5-7, and were one of the most inconsistent team in the country last season (I mean, they lost to Duke at home by three touchdowns). They probably have the better QB in this game in Russell Wilson, but I'm more worried about the Lines of Scrimmage. NC State only returns 2 starting O-Linemen and returns exactly zero starters on the defensive line. Thus, I think UCF can get pressure on the undersized Wilson (listed at 5'11) on D, and will run the ball up and down NC State's inexperienced defense. Dawgola's play: UCF -3

Florida St. (+7) at OKLAHOMA -- I really think FSU has a chance to win this game straight up. They return basically their entire offense, and have one of the top QBs in the country in Christian Ponder. Oklahoma's inexperienced defense really struggled last week against Utah State, giving up 421 yards against the Aggies (OU themselves had 422 yards of offense so it was basically dead even). The other scary thing about that game was that OU had a +2 turnover margin and still only won by a touchdown. And I don't think Ponder will throw 3 picks like the Utah State QB. FSU's Defensive Co. is none other than Bob Stoops' brother, Mark Stoops. Trust me when I say this...he is going to be a serious upgrade over the geriatric, Mickey Andrews. I think OU will improve significantly as the season rolls along as their defense gets more experience, but for Saturday, I gotta take the points....oh, and did I mention Willie is coaching OU's secondary? Dawgola's play: Florida State +7

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