Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Photobucket

This week's stat: Home Field advantage/Road disadvantage

What I decided to do was to measure a teams' performance at home and on the road using points scored and points allowed rather than simply a team's record. This gives us a more detailed look at how teams perform.

How does it give us a more detailed look? Well, for instance, if we only used records, a team that wins by 2 points at home and another team that beats the same opponent by 40 would look identical. So, by using point differential, we can get a slightly more accurate number.

What is point differential? For this post it's going to be: "offensive points scored" minus "defensive points allowed". Pretty simple.

I used games from 2005-2009 because beyond that it might seem irrelevant. I also left out Western Kentucky because they didn't officially turn FBS (I-A) until 2008. I also omitted games played at neutral sites because it was a small sample. So, here is what I found out....

In that time frame here are the leaders in 'Average Home Points Scored':

1. Texas Tech: 45.2
2. Boise State: 44.4
3. Oklahoma: 44.2
3b. Texas: 44.2
5. Florida: 41.7

Here are the Bottom five:

119. Army: 18.7
118. Temple: 19.6
117. Syracuse: 20.4
116. Miss. St. : 20.7
115. Kent St: 20.9

Here are the leaders/worst in 'Average Home Points Allowed':

1. Virginia Tech: 10.4
2. TCU: 11.2
3. Ohio State: 11.3
4. Florida: 12.2
5. Penn St: 12.4

119. North Texas: 35.1
118. Rice: 34.9
117. Duke: 33.4
116. Idaho: 32.4
115. Tulane: 32.1

Here are the leaders/worst in 'Home Point Differential':

1. Florida: +29.5
2. Boise St.: +29.2
3. Oklahoma: +28.9
4. Texas: +27.6
5. TCU: +26.8

119. Duke: -11.9
118. North Texas: -10.6
117. Tulane: -10.3
116. Utah St.: -8.7
115. Syracuse: -8.4

Here are the leaders/worst in 'Average Points Scored On the Road':

1. Texas: 40.5
2. Tulsa: 36.7
3. Missouri: 36.4
4. Boise St.: 36.1
5. Texas Tech: 35.5

119. San Jose St: 13.6
118. Syracuse: 14.2
117. New Mex. St.: 15.4
116. FIU: 16.1
115. Wyoming: 16.4

Leaders/worst in 'Average Points Allowed on the Road':

1. Ohio St: 14.1
2. Virginia Tech: 16.5
3. Alabama: 16.9
4. USC: 17.3
5. West Virginia: 17.8

119. Idaho: 43.4
118. Rice: 43.2
117. North Texas: 38.7
116. Utah State: 37.5
115. Tulane: 37.3

Best/worst in terms of 'Road Point Differential':

1. Texas: +20.9
2. USC: +16.9
3. LSU: +13.9
3b. Boise St.: +13.9
5. Ohio St.: +13.5

119. Idaho: -21.1
118. N. Mex St.: -20.5
117. North Texas: -20.4
116. FIU: -18.8
115. Wash. St.: -18.5

Now, let's look at "Home Differential" minus "Road Differential" to see which team performs most differently on the road than at home:

1. LA Tech: 27.0
2. Kansas: 25.5
3. Arkansas St: 24.0
4. San Jose St.: 21.8
5. Texas A&M: 20.3

(note: this is not necessarily a good thing. La Tech for instance was +9 at home but -18 on the road. Hence the "27.0" is more of an 'absolute value' number)

Bowling Green (-0.1), Duke (-2.3), and Navy (-3.3) were the only teams to actually perform better on the road than at home.

If we add "Home Differential" and "Road Differential" we should get all the good teams rising to the top:

1. Texas: +48.5
2. Boise St.: +43.1
3. Florida: +42.4
4. Oklahoma: +39.3
5. USC: +38.8

Other Important Notes: The National Average for "Home Differential" is: +7.2 And the National Average for "Road Differential" is: -3.7. Remember, a lot of big teams play cupcakes at home which is probably why the numbers aren't the same. Thus, even though Florida is the best in terms of Home Differential, they also typically play very weak non-conference home games.

Oh, and here are Georgia's numbers and how they rank nationally:

Avg. Home Points Scored: 32.6 (37)
Avg. Home Points Allowed: 20.3 (42)
Home Point Differential: +12.3 (36)
Avg. Road Points Scored: 26.2 (39)
Avg. Road Points Allowed: 19.9 (12)
Road Point Differential: +6.3 (19)
Home Diff.-Road Diff.: 6.0 (98)
Home Diff+Road Diff.: +18.6
(21)






No comments:

Post a Comment